The Earth’s crust is almost never completely at rest, and modern observation systems record its microscopic displacements with high accuracy. Until now, such data have been used mainly to study the behavior of faults, rather than to estimate where exactly the next big shock will occur. New work from geophysicists suggests changing this approach.
A team from the University of California, Riverside has developed a method to identify fault areas where the most powerful earthquakes are likely to occur. It is based on a GPS measurement processing algorithm that tracks subtle surface movements and calculates where a rupture is preparing.
Results published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. The authors hope that the method will help improve disaster preparedness in the most vulnerable regions of the planet.
Earthquakes occur when rocks in the Earth’s crust suddenly shift along fault lines, releasing stored energy in the form of seismic waves. It is the passage of these waves through the ground that is felt as tremors.
Tectonic plates move extremely slowly, but due to friction they can get stuck against each other. While the plates try to continue moving, stress accumulates in the crust, and faults quietly accumulate deformation for years, which the new method has learned to measure.
The researchers focused on subduction zones, where one plate sinks under another. Such zones generate the most destructive earthquakes with a magnitude above 8.5 and often become the source of tsunamis.
Using GPS data, geophysicists identify linked fragments of faults that accumulate energy. These areas are called asterites, or adhesion zones, they act as areas of increased friction and resist movement until the tension reaches a critical level.
The method has already been tested on a real event. The model pointed to a specific cohesive area beneath the Kamchatka Peninsula where a magnitude 8.8 thrust earthquake occurred in July 2025, triggering a tsunami warning for the US West Coast.
Calculations do not allow us to determine the time of the event, but the exact location of the rupture coincided with the area of accumulated deformation that the model showed.
Axel Periolla, geophysicist at the University of California, Riverside and lead author of the study:
We had an idea of where strain accumulated based on a relatively limited set of data. That it worked so well confirmed the real potential of the approach.
The team is now studying other major subduction zones off the coast of Japan, Mexico, New Zealand and the US Pacific Northwest. Expanding the observation network should improve the accuracy of estimates for the Earth’s most dangerous faults.
We can determine where major earthquakes are likely to occur, even if we cannot predict the exact time. With better observations and continuous monitoring, we will learn much more about the planet’s most dangerous faults.
At the same time, the researchers themselves warn against placing too much faith in forecasts. They say such models should complement, not replace, the public’s normal disaster preparedness.
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Gareth Fanning, geophysicist at the University of California, Riverside and co-author of the study:
Your peace of mind should not be based on the belief that we are able to predict a specific earthquake. Especially where we live in Southern California, it’s not a question of if, but when. There is no substitute for preparation.
While the method won’t work universally, it’s definitely a step in the right direction.
